NBA Draft

The NBA Draft is tonight, where we get another lesson on just how different the professional game is than the college game.

The college player of the year, Andrew Bogut of Utah, is a likely first round pick. He’s a 7-footer with a polished game and those guys are pretty rare coming into the draft.

The second pick is likely to be Marvin Williams of North Carolina. Williams is a 6-9 forward with three point range, the ability to handle the ball well enough to create his own shot, and a nose for it around the rim, but never started a game in his one year at UNC. I can’t think of anyone who was strictly a reserve in college getting drafted, let alone drafted this high. However, he’s got great potential and is considered a can’t-miss prospect. He often gets compared to Tracy McGrady.

After that, it’s HS kids, college point guards, and foreigners.

The point guards are Deron Williams of Illinois, Chris Paul of Wake Forest and Raymond Felton of North Carolina. Felton and Paul are better athletes, but Williams is the best at taking care of the ball and running an offense. Paul is probably the best shooter but also the sloppiest with the ball.

Another college big man that will probably go early is Arizona’s Channing Frye. The 6-11 Frye has pretty good skills around the basket, but will need to get stronger to be successful in the NBA.

Whenever a player jumps levels, he often finds himself changing positions as well. Often, guys who are centers in high school are forwards in college, for example. The same kind of jump happens often happens from college to the NBA also. Guys like Sean May, who was a center in college at 6-8, will probably be a power forward in the NBA. Sometimes guys like May see their draft position suffer a little because of the position switch.

As with any draft, there are steals and busts. For me, the guy who is most likely to be a bust is Connecticut’s Charlie Villanueva. Villanueva is a 6-10 power forward who is capable of dominating college games, but too often doesn’t show up. His disappearing act was a primary cause of UConn’s early ouster in the NCAA tournament this year. The old adage is that you can’t teach size, but among the things you can teach, the toughest is work ethic, and Villanueva is sorely lacking there.

I think one of the biggest steals will be Luther Head of Illinois. He’s going to drop in the draft some because he’s a little small for a shooting guard, and he’s not really a pure point guard either. He has some point guard skills, but he didn’t play the position at Illinois. If he finds a home at one position or the other in the NBA, he has a chance to have a pretty good career in the league.

One thing kind of unique to the NBA draft is that a lot of guys come out of college early, and some go into the draft right out of high school. Invariably, some of those players made a mistake. Among the college players likely to get his feelings hurt tonight is Brandon Bass of LSU. Bass has Sean May’s body, but isn’t as developed. Also, there are a lot of guys like him in this draft. Another year or two of college ball would have really suited him well. Bass is likely to end up at the end of someone’s bench or overseas.

This will also be the last draft where HS players can be picked. The new collective bargaining agreement beginning next year will set an age limit of 19 and players also have to be at least one year beyond their HS graduation. That means the Greg Odens of the world were born one year too late.

Oden will go to Ohio St, a place he doesn’t want to be, because the NBA says he can’t play there. He’ll stay for one year and move on. Ohio St hopes that one year is enough to bring them some glory. There are many who complain that the college game has suffered for not having all the high school stars that never played, but if all we’re going to get is one year of from these guys, I fail to see how that makes the college game better.

If the college game suffers from players leaving early, it’s from those leaving early (or never coming at all) that are clearly not ready for the NBA. Still, the player suffers more than the game does.